LATEST UPDATES: July 9, 1:10 a.m. ET — With new information, Keith Law will continue to update this mock draft. All updates are noted.

Here’s my final full mock draft, although since we’re more than 48 hours out from the first pick, I may update this at some point over the weekend. Once again, this reflects my belief on which players each team is likely to consider at their pick, and who’s likely to be available. It’s not a function of my own opinions on these players and thus not who I would take at each pick; that’s what my Big Board, ranking the top 100 players in the class, is for.

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Law: Scouting the top prospects I saw at the Arizona Fall League

There are way more players worthy of a first-round pick this year than there are actual first-round picks (28), so several of those players will be drafted later than they would in a typical year – but they may still receive first-round bonuses, which is a lot more important in the end. My exclusion of Thomas White, the top high school lefty in the draft, is not a commentary on his talent, but a general industry trend away from high school pitchers in the first round and an expectation that he’ll want a healthy bonus to forgo his scholarship to Vanderbilt. You just can’t put 40 players into 28 picks, not without violating the Pauli exclusion principle.

Langford has clearly been on the short list for the Pirates all year, but with Dylan Crews appearing to want over slot to sign here and the team’s apparent preference for a bat over an arm possibly leading them away from Paul Skenes, Langford is the best fit as someone who’s absolutely good enough to be the first overall pick but would sign at a number that will let the Pirates go over slot with later picks. Don’t discount Max Clark here either, for the same reasons, although I think the Pirates would prefer the college guy who’ll get there faster. Clark is motivated to go first overall and there’s a very good argument that he has the highest upside of any candidate to go here.

Tough call for the Nats if both LSU kids are here, but a source familiar with the team’s thinking told me the Nats would probably still take Skenes because he has the profile of a pitcher who’s in the majors in a year à la Stephen Strasburg. Neither is a wrong choice and I could easily see them taking Crews.

If this happens the Tigers should probably just take the rest of the week off. Other teams believe the Tigers will go college regardless, since one of the big three college prospects has to get here.

Word is Clark is the top guy on the Rangers’ board, period, although they’d have to have a gut check if somehow Crews got here. Sounds like their mix, assuming Crews is gone, is Clark, Langford and Walker Jenkins.

Several sources have told me that if Crews and Langford are gone, Gonzalez is the top player in the Twins’ draft model and he’d be the pick over the high schoolers, although they’re more likely to take Clark than Jenkins if either gets to this pick.

UPDATE: I think the A’s are the team most likely to go college bat in this area of the draft, although a rumor on Saturday had them considering an under-slot deal with Chase Dollander. If they go bat, it could be Taylor, Gonzalez, possibly Jacob Wilson, or maybe an outside shot at Matt Shaw. I do not believe they’d take Walker Jenkins if he’s here.

This scenario keeps coming up, although there is one factor that sticks out as a potential obstacle – will Jenkins require an over-slot bonus and would Cincinnati pay it? The Reds have the scratch with an extra pick at No. 38 adding $2.255 million to their pool, and Jenkins would be worth going under slot there or at their regular pick at No. 43. If he’s gone or they choose not to pay, they’re on Kyle Teel, Lowder and Dollander.

They’re linked to two catchers – Teel and high schooler Blake Mitchell – more than any other players, although earlier in the spring I heard them attached to Gonzalez, Wilson and Noble Meyer.

I’ve been told the safest bet in the top 10 is the Rockies taking a college arm, which would be Lowder, Dollander or maybe Hurston Waldrep. I haven’t heard Ty Floyd with them but I wouldn’t fall out of my chair with surprise either.

Latest I heard here was that they’re targeting a high school bat, but not Colin Houck, which could also mean a deal with someone like Peete or Dillon Head so they can throw money at other players (Charlee Soto?) at picks Nos. 35 and 47. They might be the high team on Meyer, might be the highest team on Shaw, and a lot of folks think Wilson is too much their type for them to pass on him, although I don’t think they have a clear “type” at this point.

All the names here now are fast-to-the-majors college types, and Schanuel might be one of the fastest because he’s hit for contact and power at exceptional rates and you’re not waiting on growth or projection. I’ve also heard Dollander here, a little Houck, Lowder of course if he gets this far. I haven’t heard Shaw as much as I should, though, as he could move quickly with a shift to second base.

The D-Backs were heavy on Dollander down the stretch, hoping they’re getting a top-five talent who had an off year because some genius told him to change his slider grip to get more sweep. I’ve also heard them with Houck, Shaw, Troy and Gonzalez, who might have a floor here.

There is a lot of talk about the Cubs going prep with Aidan Miller or Houck, especially with Miller apparently having a very impressive workout for the Cubs. They’re also linked to the group of college bats that might go around here, notably Shaw and Troy, less so Enrique Bradfield Jr. Shaw has the kind of advanced characteristics the Cubs have weighed heavily in taking Cade Horton (pitch shape/spin) and Christian Franklin (batted ball data) in the last two drafts.

Yes, another infielder for the Red Sox, although I don’t think you can have too many good infield prospects, ever. Emerson’s one of the younger players in the draft class and there are at least some scouts who think he’s one of the better pure hitters. I’m only hearing them with hitters, including college guys Shaw, Brock Wilken and Chase Davis; and high schoolers with Bryce Eldridge – who supposedly wants to go to a team that will also let him pitch – Houck and Mitchell as other possibilities.

I think this is the floor for Dollander and they could be in the mix for Waldrep as well. I haven’t heard them with Wilson specifically, but he’d fit here given how they seem to scout and value players.

I have heard several times that the Giants have something in place with Colorado prep infielder Walker Martin, but that might be for their second pick at No. 52, as they have extra cash to play with thanks to a compensation pick for losing Carlos Rodón. They might be Meyer’s floor, and I’ve heard them with Bradfield, Troy and Eldridge, as well.

If you’re asking me to bet on a category, I’d still bet they’re more likely to take a hitter than a pitcher, but Floyd has flown up everyone’s boards lately and he does have the fastball characteristics that the Orioles seem to value. If they go bat, it could be Houck, Arjun Nimmala or Eldridge, or maybe they just take any good college bat who slides like Troy or Shaw.

Troy goes somewhere in the teens, and has the kind of performance and batted-ball characteristics the Brewers, and their draft model, typically value. I think they’re a floor for several college hitters who might slide to this point, or could be a home for Floyd or Waldrep. They’re also a sleeper on Houck if he slides here.

UPDATE: I had Colin Houck here earlier Friday, but heard they’re not likely to take him even if he’s here. They still could go with a sliding college position player, but Nimmala fits their blended approach of traditional scouting and data.

I’ve heard them mostly with college guys, and there’s some chatter that last year’s first-rounder, high school pitcher Brandon Barriera, showing up much heavier this spring and hitting the IL with an elbow issue almost immediately has shifted them away from prep pitching. They’re Bradfield’s floor.

UPDATE: The Cardinals’ first-round pick last year was a big “pitch shape” guy, Cooper Hjerpe, although he’s currently on the shelf with an arm issue. Waldrep is another such player, featuring one of the best pitches in the draft in his power splitter.

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St. Louis is also linked to Schanuel, Wilson, a little with Kevin McGonigle (who might end up at Auburn), and Chase Davis.

UPDATE: Reverting to my previous belief that they’ll take a college player here and go high school at Nos. 29 and 30.

The talk all spring has been that Seattle would go college here and then go for high-ceiling high school guys at Nos. 29 and 30, although they may need to change that up if they have a specific guy in mind who might get picked between 22 and 29, or if someone unexpected falls to them here.

UPDATE: Another fairly model-friendly pick, and what would be an unusual one for Cleveland because of Eldridge’s big power projection – the Guardians have tended to favor hitters who projected to make a ton of contact without much power.

UPDATE: I said early Friday that Houck might be sliding. This seems awfully far for him to slide, but once he’s getting close to Atlanta’s pick, knowing their history of grabbing many of the best players in their backyard, maybe it’s not that unreasonable to think it would try to work him all the way to No. 25.

UPDATE: If Eldridge is gone, it might be Davis or Sammy Stafura here. Davis is the kind of high-upside player the Padres like to take in the first round, although they don’t usually go the college route.

This connection keeps coming back around, whether it’s because they really value Stafura’s defense and speed that highly or just because they saw the local kid the most. I’ve heard them with Eldridge, Head, Thomas White and Peete; and wouldn’t be surprised if they went after a college arm here like Floyd or Joe Whitman.

UPDATE: I said in the mock 4.0 that I thought this was Davis’ floor, but if he’s gone, I think they’ll go pitching. I’ve heard them a few times with Soto, who has one of the best three-pitch mixes in the draft; I haven’t heard them with Travis Sykora, but he’d fit their philosophy. If they want to go college in the wake of Andrew Painter’s latest setback, I could see them taking Joe Whitman as the top college lefty, hoping he’ll get to the majors faster.

Everyone thinks they’ll take Floyd if he even gets here, knowing GM Dana Brown’s preference for college pitchers with great fastball characteristics, and if he’s not I believe they’ll go to the college ranks regardless.

Farmelo goes somewhere in this range, No. 29 through about No. 36, I think, and gets a big deal to sign him away from Virginia. Other names I’ve heard Seattle on for these picks, if they’re here, are Head, Peete and Emerson.

UPDATE: Another high-ceiling high school player Seattle could target here, in the large pool along with Farmelo, Eldridge, Peete, George Lombard Jr., Emerson, and Stafura.

Heard this one a few times recently, although this far down in the draft it’s more a function of who’s available than specific preferences.

Very much a function of who gets to this pick, as I’ve heard them on all categories of players, from Nimmala (who I can’t imagine gets this far) to Floyd (probably stops at Houston) to George Lombard Jr. (could go anywhere from about No. 22 on down) to Ralphy Velazquez.

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Some other names to listen for in the sandwich round or early second: Aidan Miller, Brandon Sproat, Nazzan Zanetello, Travis Sykora, Joey Volchko, Thomas White, Blake Mitchell, Alex Clemmey and Teddy McGraw.

(Illustration: John Bradford / The Athletic; Photos: Getty Images, LSU, Team USA)

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